Negotiations Case: Whither North Korea?

The case of North Korea and its nascent nuclear program presents the rest of the world with few immediate options, and no good confrontational options. This is, at its current equilbrium, like a crisis negotiation:

by Bruce A. Wind 10/95
[Officer Wind is a member of the Seattle, WA, Police Dept. Hostage
Negotiations Team.]

Incidents involving barricaded subjects, hostage takers, or persons threatening suicide represent especially trying and stressful moments for law enforcement personnel who respond to them. Officers first responding to the scene must quickly assess the totality of the situation, secure the area, gauge the threat to hostages or bystanders, and request additional units as appropriate. Crisis negotiators must establish contact with subjects, identify their demands, and work to resolve tense and often volatile standoffs without loss of life. Special Weapons and Tactics (SWAT) teams must prepare to neutralize subjects through swift tactical means. Field commanders assume ultimate responsibility for every aspect of the police response.

North Korea is a desperately poor, totalitarian country whose leader is not an irrational actor. He's a power made despot, but he's not irrational. The US signalled to its "Axis of Evil" enemies that it will invade and depose a regime if that regime cannot defend itself with a nuke. The US is bogged down in an occupation of Iraq with no good end in sight, is threatening Iran (Axis of Evil member number 2) and has left North Korea (member number 3) alone precisely because it was not so weak a target as Saddam's Iraq. It is rational, therefore, for Iran and North Korea to pursue nuclear weapons development for self-defense. This is not rocket science.

So, now North Korea is in a fearful frenzy and is trying to leverage its nuclear development to get dialogue with the West on more favorable terms, including more economic support and an end to sanctions. Waving around a nuke is like holding the rest of the planet hostage. The only responsible course, from a pure power analysis, is to engage with North Korea through a policy of negotiation, dialogue, reassurances and international cooperation aimed at containment. I come at this not through any partisan political analysis, but purely as an expert in negotiations and my understanding of how to de-escalate crisis scenarios.